.webp "How Israel is trying to create a civil war in Lebanon")
BEIRUT, LEBANON - On October 14, an Israeli airstrike killed 22 people in the northern Lebanese village of Aitu.
Israel claimed it hit a "Hezbollah target" but the attack on a major Christian city left many wondering if Israel was expanding its war to chase Hezbollah members and mainly Shiite Hezbollah supporters wherever they could flee.
"I can only guess at Israel's intentions, but clearly they are trying to poison the Shiite community by trying to completely isolate it," said Michael Young, a Lebanon expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
Fragile system
Lebanon operates a confessional system, with political posts reserved for members of certain religious communities.
The fragile system has historically been exploited by regional states by dividing the country's political parties and religious communities for their own geopolitical goals.
In addition, each religious community generally lives in relatively isolated areas and neighborhoods in Lebanon - largely a result of previous violent conflicts that escalated into sectarian violence and led to widespread community displacement.
The attack on Aitu dates back to Lebanon's 15-year civil war (1975-1990) when the country was drawn into the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict and descended into multi-faceted fighting.
Now, as Israel's war — ostensibly against Hezbollah — threatens to destabilize the entire country again, a pattern has emerged, beyond the Aito attack, in which Israel attacks neighborhoods and communities that have absorbed thousands of displaced people.
Analysts believe this trend reflects a sinister motive to collectively punish Hezbollah's Shia support base, psychologically torment the Lebanese population and trigger sectarian violence.
"When [Israel] is hitting [these people] in areas that are not primarily Hezbollah-controlled, more and more people in these areas will be reluctant to accept displaced Shiites because they fear that Israel will attack them," Yang told.
Psychological warfare?
According to Maha Yahya, an expert on Lebanon and director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, the dire prospect that Israel could continue to level districts across Lebanon is a clear form of psychological warfare.
"It's a message to Hezbollah and the wider [Shia] community that says: 'We'll get you wherever you are,'" Yahya said.
"On the flip side, it's fueling sectarian tensions and almost creating panic among the wider Lebanese population, who fear neighbors they don't know and whom Israel might decide to target."
According to Israeli political commentator Ori Goldberg, Israel is using the same open rhetoric and military tactics in Lebanon as it did in Gaza.
"Israel feels it can target anything it considers a military position, whoever is there, just like in Gaza. Just like we saw in Nabati," he told.
Nabatih is a provincial capital in southern Lebanon where Israel has indiscriminately carpet bombed, effectively turning it into a desert. On October 16, an Israeli airstrike hit Nabatieh's municipal headquarters, killing 16 people, including the mayor.
It was the biggest attack on a state building since Israel carried out its first bombing against Hezbollah on September 22.
“[Israel thinks] we don't care if there are people near where we are bombing. That's their problem," Goldberg told.
Lebanon operates a confessional system, with political posts reserved for members of certain religious communities.
The fragile system has historically been exploited by regional states by dividing the country's political parties and religious communities for their own geopolitical goals.
In addition, each religious community generally lives in relatively isolated areas and neighborhoods in Lebanon - largely a result of previous violent conflicts that escalated into sectarian violence and led to widespread community displacement.
The attack on Aitu dates back to Lebanon's 15-year civil war (1975-1990) when the country was drawn into the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict and descended into multi-faceted fighting.
Now, as Israel's war — ostensibly against Hezbollah — threatens to destabilize the entire country again, a pattern has emerged, beyond the Aito attack, in which Israel attacks neighborhoods and communities that have absorbed thousands of displaced people.
Analysts believe this trend reflects a sinister motive to collectively punish Hezbollah's Shia support base, psychologically torment the Lebanese population and trigger sectarian violence.
"When [Israel] is hitting [these people] in areas that are not primarily Hezbollah-controlled, more and more people in these areas will be reluctant to accept displaced Shiites because they fear that Israel will attack them," Yang told.
Psychological warfare?
According to Maha Yahya, an expert on Lebanon and director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, the dire prospect that Israel could continue to level districts across Lebanon is a clear form of psychological warfare.
"It's a message to Hezbollah and the wider [Shia] community that says: 'We'll get you wherever you are,'" Yahya said.
"On the flip side, it's fueling sectarian tensions and almost creating panic among the wider Lebanese population, who fear neighbors they don't know and whom Israel might decide to target."
According to Israeli political commentator Ori Goldberg, Israel is using the same open rhetoric and military tactics in Lebanon as it did in Gaza.
"Israel feels it can target anything it considers a military position, whoever is there, just like in Gaza. Just like we saw in Nabati," he told.
Nabatih is a provincial capital in southern Lebanon where Israel has indiscriminately carpet bombed, effectively turning it into a desert. On October 16, an Israeli airstrike hit Nabatieh's municipal headquarters, killing 16 people, including the mayor.
It was the biggest attack on a state building since Israel carried out its first bombing against Hezbollah on September 22.
“[Israel thinks] we don't care if there are people near where we are bombing. That's their problem," Goldberg told.
///Source Aljazeera ///
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