Lebanon needs new deterrent to avoid long war with Israel

After former US President Donald Trump was re-elected, efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel have seemingly gained momentum. On Monday, US special envoy Amos Hochstein and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer met in Washington to discuss the issue.

In October, Hochstein traveled to Beirut, but his visit was fruitless, as he made it clear that for the US, “it is not enough for both sides to simply commit to [United Nations Security Council Resolution] 1701” and that there needs to be a new “formula that ends this conflict once and for all”. Throwing aside UN resolutions seems to have become commonplace among recent US officials, with disastrous consequences.

In their latest proposal, Israel and the United States are demanding that Lebanon adopt a new arrangement that would allow Israeli troops to “actively enforce” the disarmament of southern Lebanon. In other words, Israel would have effective military control over Lebanese territory.

No sovereign nation – or non-state actor – would agree to such terms. Neither Lebanon nor Hezbollah would abandon their military resistance. Therefore, US and Israeli insistence on these new terms would prolong the war.

Building a new consensus around Resolution 1701 is the only viable path to peace.

The resolution ended Israel’s last war with Lebanon in 2006, served as a mechanism for the cessation of hostilities, and outlined steps to clear the border area of ​​the presence of armed groups. Although its full implementation was problematic – as both sides were aware – it effectively ended the fighting.

Its commitment to implementation could also end hostilities this time. And Hezbollah would have to take the first step.

The grim prospect of a long war
On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that after 40 days of intense fighting, Hezbollah had been defeated. “Our job now is to keep up the pressure to bring about that victory,” he reportedly said at a formal ceremony.

Israel is confident it can force Hezbollah to surrender. However, pursuing a military solution in Lebanon would mean a war that would be nothing like the 2006 conflict.

By then, Israel’s ground offensive had stalled and public support had waned as casualties mounted. Today, Prime Minister Netanyahu enjoys the support of the Israeli public, buoyed by military successes that have eliminated Hezbollah’s leadership and disrupted its communications networks.

Despite these losses, Hezbollah is better prepared, better equipped, and arguably more disciplined than it was in 2006. It is no wonder that Israel has not gained more than a few miles of ground since the start of its ground offensive, and daily rocket barrages directed at northern and central Israel continue.

Barring some major changes or diplomatic shifts under the incoming Trump administration that will put pressure on Israel, this means we are in for a long war.

An essential deterrent
Hezbollah has resumed hostilities with Israel, with the support of its ally Hamas, and until recently, held a truce with Israel in Gaza. The group knows that while many Lebanese understand its ongoing interference, many are also dissatisfied, to say the least, with its actions over the past two decades.

By supporting the Syrian regime in the 2010s, helping to maintain the rule of corrupt Lebanese elites during the economic collapse of 2019, and obstructing the investigation into the 2020 Beirut port explosion, Hezbollah has made a lot of enemies at home and abroad and has done so by relying almost entirely on Iran for diplomatic leverage and military expertise.

Its refusal to integrate into a national defense strategy by maintaining its weapons outside the command and control of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has led to a massive mismanagement of national security and left the country vulnerable to Israel’s superior military might.

The devastation that Israel is wreaking across Lebanon is also a major cause for concern. The larger the displacement from the south and east of the country, the greater the social tension and resentment towards Hezbollah will grow.

At the same time, Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles and fighter jets is Lebanon’s only real bargaining chip. Without Hezbollah, Israeli Merkava tanks would almost certainly roll into Beirut and install a puppet government, encountering little resistance along the way.

Lebanese who are calling on Hezbollah to lay down its arms for peace are either living in a fantasy world or are simply terrible negotiators.

///Source-Al Jazeera////